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Two Matchday 2 results on 22 June moved the tournament’s needle more than the scorelines suggest. Argentina beat Austria 2–0 and Lionel Messi became the men’s World Cup all-time top scorer; France dismantled Iraq 4–0 with a Kylian Mbappé brace on his 100th cap. France, Norway and Argentina are through; Iraq and Senegal are out. I have rebuilt the qualification picture below from the verified group tables — and from a New Zealand standpoint, the best-third-place pathway the All Whites are chasing just got one shade clearer.

The Results: Groups I & J, Matchday 2
Numbers first. Here is the verified ledger from 22 June. Two late kick-offs (Norway–Senegal, Jordan–Algeria) had not propagated to canonical sources at the time of writing — I flag them honestly rather than guess.
| Match | Group | Score | Key scorer(s) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina vs Austria | J | 2–0 | Messi 38′ (record goal) | Confirmed (score) |
| France vs Iraq | I | 4–0 | Mbappé ×2 (100th cap) | Confirmed (score) |
| Norway vs Senegal | I | 1–0 or 2–1 | Haaland | Played — score unconfirmed |
| Jordan vs Algeria | J | — | — | Result not yet confirmed |
The two confirmed results are multi-source (NBC, CBS, ESPN, Olympics.com for Argentina; FOX Sports, ESPN, NBC for France). On the Norway–Senegal scoreline the sources split between 1–0 and 2–1, so I will not publish a definitive score — but the points and goal-difference swing (Norway to six points, +4 either way) is settled, and that is what matters for the table. The Jordan–Algeria result had not reached the index; treat both sides as provisional on zero points until it lands.
Messi’s Record: The Number That Reframes the Golden Boot
Messi’s 38th-minute goal against Austria carried him past Miroslav Klose’s long-standing men’s World Cup record of 16 career goals. There is a genuine conflict in the reporting on his exact new total — ESPN and Olympics.com count a single goal (career 17), while CBS’s live blog logged a brace (38′ and 90+5′, career 18). I record the record itself as confirmed and the precise tally as disputed; the betting market, however, has already voted.
The Golden Boot board shifted hard. Messi’s price came in from 4.00 to 3.00 (a +200 shot) immediately after the record, making him the clear outright favourite ahead of Mbappé, whose brace against Iraq kept him in second.
| Golden Boot | Odds (decimal) | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 3.00 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4.20 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| Harry Kane | 6.00 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 13.00 | 22 Jun 2026 |
| Erling Haaland | 16.00 | 22 Jun 2026 |
Odds media-reported (FOX Sports / FanDuel), decimal, as of 22 June 2026. Lines move quickly — confirm with your book before staking.
A 3.00 favourite in a market this deep is short, and it prices in a Messi run that assumes Argentina go far. That is the value question I dig into on the Golden Boot odds page — for now, note that the record is a narrative magnet, and narrative magnets compress prices below their true probability.
France and Norway: Group I Is Decided at the Top
France were ruthless. The 4–0 win over Iraq, with Mbappé scoring twice on his 100th international appearance, put them top of Group I on six points and a +6 goal difference, and eliminated Iraq. Norway joined them on six points after beating Senegal, sending Senegal home. Both are through with a match to spare; their Matchday 3 meeting (26 June) now decides only seeding and the group winner.
| Group I | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 6 | Through |
| Norway | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 | Through |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −3 | 0 | Eliminated |
| Iraq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −7 | 0 | Eliminated |
Standings from Wikipedia per-group pages; Norway’s exact GF/GA carries the unconfirmed-score caveat above. The +4 margin holds regardless of a one- or two-goal winning margin.
France remain the tournament’s solo outright favourite at 4.90. That price has held since their group form firmed up, and a top-of-the-board team that has already qualified with a game in hand is exactly the kind of profile that resists drift.
Argentina Through — and the Klose Comparison
Argentina’s 2–0 win, beyond the Messi headline, was clinical: six points, a +5 goal difference, and reporting that they have secured advancement. Austria sit second for now on three points. The bottom-two arithmetic in Group J only resolves once the Jordan–Algeria result is confirmed.
For context on where Argentina sit in the outright market, see the tournament winner odds. Argentina were quoted at 8.00 in the single best-timestamped snapshot (FOX/FanDuel, 22 Jun), though book-to-book variance is wide — some books carried them nearer 9.00. That spread is itself a signal: the market has not fully settled on Argentina as a top-three side despite the perfect group record.
What It Means From New Zealand
Every team that qualifies early tightens the maths for the sides still scrapping for a best-third-place berth — and that includes the All Whites. New Zealand sit bottom of Group G on one point after the loss to Egypt, and their fate runs through the final round of group games. The cleaner the top-two picture becomes in groups like I and J, the more the third-place cut-off firms up around the four-point mark that recent best-third tournaments have rewarded. The All Whites’ route is narrow, but it is still open — I model the full scenario in the knockout-scenario breakdown.
- Messi became the men’s World Cup all-time top scorer v Austria (22 Jun); his Golden Boot price shortened from 4.00 to 3.00.
- France (6 pts, +6) and Norway (6 pts, +4) are both through from Group I; Iraq and Senegal are eliminated.
- Argentina (6 pts, +5) have secured advancement from Group J; Austria sit second pending the Jordan–Algeria result.
- Two late 22-Jun results carry score/result caveats — points and goal difference are settled, exact scorelines are not.
- Early qualifiers tighten the best-third cut-off the All Whites are chasing in Group G.
Odds shown are media-reported decimals as of 22 June 2026 and are for analysis only. Betting carries risk — stake only what you can afford to lose. For New Zealand support, see Responsible Gambling.