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The World Cup 2026 quarter-finals run 9–11 July, and the field is down to eight: France, Morocco, Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina and Switzerland. France are the clear tournament favourite at 2.80, but the bottom half of the draw has cracked wide open — Brazil and all three hosts are gone, and Norway and Switzerland have reached the last eight for the first time in living memory. Below is every tie with decimal odds, the outright and Golden Boot boards, the semi-final map and New Zealand kick-off times.
The Four Quarter-Finals
Odds are 1X2 decimals; "1" is the first-named team to win in 90 minutes. A draw after 90 goes to extra time and, if needed, penalties.
| Tie | Date | 1 | X | 2 | NZ kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France v Morocco | 9 Jul | 1.56 | 3.90 | 6.50 | Fri 10 Jul, 8:00 AM NZST |
| Spain v Belgium | 10 Jul | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.25 | Sat 11 Jul, 7:00 AM NZST |
| Norway v England | 11 Jul | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.90 | Sun 12 Jul, 9:00 AM NZST |
| Argentina v Switzerland | 11 Jul | 1.75 | 3.50 | 5.25 | Sun 12 Jul, 1:00 PM NZST |
1X2 decimal odds (aggregated) as of 8 July 2026; NZ times converted from US Eastern (NZST +16h, next calendar day). France v Morocco is at Gillette Stadium (Boston); Spain v Belgium at SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles); Norway v England at Hard Rock Stadium (Miami); Argentina v Switzerland at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City).
The Outright Market
France firmed into a clear favourite after their run to the last eight; behind them the market is tightly bunched, with Spain, Argentina and England separated by less than a point. Norway and Switzerland are the rank outsiders among the survivors despite their runs.
| Outright (Winner) | Decimal odds |
|---|---|
| France | 2.80 |
| Spain | 4.70 |
| Argentina | 4.90 |
| England | 5.60 |
| Norway | 15.0 |
| Morocco | 28.0 |
| Belgium | 31.0 |
| Switzerland | 34.0 |
Outright winner odds (aggregated decimals) as of 8 July 2026. Some books rate Argentina ahead of Spain and as short as 4.00; treat these as ranges, not a settled consensus. For analysis only.
The Golden Boot Race
The scoring award has a new favourite. Lionel Messi moved to eight goals — the outright lead — after scoring against Egypt, and the market has installed him at 2.20 ahead of Kylian Mbappé (2.40), who is one behind on seven.
| Contender | Goals | Golden Boot odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 8 | 2.20 |
| Kylian Mbappé (France) | 7 | 2.40 |
| Erling Haaland (Norway) | 7 | 8.50 |
| Harry Kane (England) | 6 | 10.0 |
Golden Boot odds and leaderboard (aggregated decimals) as of 8 July 2026. Messi leads outright on eight; still-alive contenders only.
Tie by Tie
France v Morocco (1.56) reprises the 2022 semi-final, which France won 2-0. Les Bleus have won all six matches but were held to a 1-0 by Paraguay in the last 16; Morocco arrive unbeaten (three wins, three draws) having knocked out co-hosts Canada 3-0. We break it down in the France v Morocco prediction.
Spain v Belgium (1.61) is a lopsided head-to-head — Spain have never lost to Belgium in seven meetings — and pits the tournament’s meanest defence (two conceded) against a Belgium side missing the injured Amadou Onana. See the Spain v Belgium prediction.
Norway v England (England 1.90) is the tie of the round for narrative: Haaland’s Norway, fresh from beating Brazil, against an England side juggling an injury and suspension list. The Norway v England prediction has the full read.
Argentina v Switzerland (1.75) puts Golden Boot leader Messi against the tournament’s other fairytale — Switzerland’s first quarter-final since 1954. The Argentina v Switzerland prediction covers it in detail.
The Semi-Final Map
The bracket is fixed: the top-half winners meet in Dallas, the bottom-half winners in Atlanta.
| Semi-final | Date | Line-up | NZ kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF1 | 14 Jul | France/Morocco winner v Spain/Belgium winner | Wed 15 Jul, 7:00 AM NZST |
| SF2 | 15 Jul | Norway/England winner v Argentina/Switzerland winner | Thu 16 Jul, 7:00 AM NZST |
SF1 is at AT&T Stadium, Dallas; SF2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. NZ times converted from US Eastern.
For how the last eight was decided, see the round-of-16 results recap. For the wider market, the evergreen betting guide, predictions hub and knockout-stage predictions carry the tournament-long context.
- The quarter-finals run 9–11 July: France v Morocco, Spain v Belgium, Norway v England and Argentina v Switzerland.
- France (2.80) are the clear outright favourite; Spain (4.70), Argentina (4.90) and England (5.60) are bunched behind.
- France (1.56) and Spain (1.61) are the shortest ties; Argentina (1.75) and England (1.90) are favoured on the other half.
- Lionel Messi is the new Golden Boot favourite (2.20) on eight goals, one clear of Mbappé (2.40).
- Norway (first ever) and Switzerland (first since 1954) are the surprise packages of the last eight; the semi-finals are 14–15 July.
Odds shown are aggregated decimals as of 8 July 2026 and are for analysis only. Betting carries risk — stake only what you can afford to lose. For New Zealand support, see Responsible Gambling.
