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Matchday 2 closes on 23 June (US time) with two groups still wide open. For New Zealand viewers these land overnight into the morning and early afternoon of 24 June NZST — a friendly slate to follow before work or over lunch. I have run each fixture through the verified group tables and the media-reported 1X2 lines, and below are the prices, the probabilities I trust, and the three picks I would actually back.
The Card: Fixtures, NZ Times and 1X2 Odds
All times converted to NZST (UTC+12; New Zealand runs +16 hours ahead of US Eastern, so these US-evening kick-offs fall on the morning/afternoon of 24 June locally).
| Match | Group | NZ kick-off (NZST, 24 Jun) | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | K | 5:00 AM | 1.18 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| England vs Ghana | L | 8:00 AM | 1.20 | 6.50 | 14.00 |
| Panama vs Croatia | L | 11:00 AM | 7.50 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | K | 2:00 PM | 1.51 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
1X2 decimal odds media-reported (FanDuel / covers / bet365 / CBS / ESPN), as of 23 June 2026; figures converted from American lines, treat as indicative. NZ kick-off times derived from venue local time + the +16h NZST offset — confirm exact times on TVNZ’s schedule before kick-off.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan — Favourite, But Watch the Ronaldo Story
At 1.18, Portugal are priced as a near-certainty, and the table backs it: Uzbekistan are at their first World Cup and lost 3–1 to Colombia in their opener. The subplot is Cristiano Ronaldo, 41, who has gone ten successive major-tournament matches without scoring for Portugal and was held in a goalless 1–1 with DR Congo. The pressure framing — "must score" — is real, but it doesn’t change the match result probability much.
A 1.18 line implies roughly an 85% win probability; I model Portugal closer to 82%, which makes the straight win a thin-value bet at best. The interest here is in the goals and scorer markets, not the match line. The match is at NRG Stadium, Houston, where the retractable roof can shut out a 33°C afternoon and create fast, climate-controlled conditions that suit a possession side.
England vs Ghana — The Group L Decider
England (1.20) are heavy favourites against Ghana, but this is the genuine top-of-the-group shoot-out: both won their openers, and the winner takes a major step toward the knockouts. Ghana have lost three players to tournament-ending injury (Kudus, Salisu, Djiku), which thins their threat considerably; England carry their own doubt in Bukayo Saka (Achilles). Harry Kane can pass Gary Lineker as England’s outright all-time World Cup scorer.
This match earns a full breakdown of its own — form, predicted XIs, and the value angles — in our England v Ghana preview. In short: England should win, but 1.20 offers little, and the smarter exposure is in the handicap and Kane-related markets.
Panama vs Croatia — My Best Bet
This is the one I would actually back. Both Panama and Croatia lost their openers and sit on zero points — the loser is all but eliminated, which sharpens Croatia’s motivation. Croatia are 1.55 away favourites, and despite a 40-year-old Modrić cutting a tired figure late against England, their technical class against a Panama side that has yet to score should tell.
| Panama vs Croatia | Model probability | Market (decimal) | Market implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panama win | 18% | 7.50 | 13% |
| Draw | 26% | 4.10 | 24% |
| Croatia win | 56% | 1.55 | 65% |
I make Croatia 56% to win — below the market’s 65% implied — so the straight win is fairly priced rather than a steal, but with elimination on the line for both, a Croatia win combined with a clean-sheet or −1 handicap angle is where I see the edge. The match is at BMO Field, Toronto, open-air and mild (~24°C), with no weather complication.
Colombia vs DR Congo — Near Round-of-32 Decider
Colombia (1.51) lead Group K after beating Uzbekistan 3–1; DR Congo, at their first World Cup in over 50 years, drew Portugal. The winner takes a near-decisive step toward the round of 32. Colombia’s individual quality — Luis Díaz, James Rodríguez, Luis Suárez in the predicted XI — outstrips a DR Congo side set up to defend deep in a 5-3-2. At 1.51, Colombia look the right favourites; I model them at 60% against the market’s 66% implied, so again the value sits in supplementary markets (Díaz/Suárez to score) rather than the short match line. Expect light rain in Guadalajara’s rainy season.
My Three Picks for 23 June
Numbers lead, so here is the shortlist with the reasoning compressed.
| Pick | Match | Odds (decimal) | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia to win | Panama v Croatia | 1.55 | High | Elimination motivation + class gap; Panama yet to score |
| Over 2.5 goals | Portugal v Uzbekistan | (line varies) | Medium | Portugal chasing goals; Ronaldo under pressure to score |
| Colombia & both teams to score No | Colombia v DR Congo | (line varies) | Medium | DR Congo low output; Colombia control the tempo |
Confidence is my own assessment, not a guarantee. Where the supplementary-market line is not in our verified odds set I have left it as “line varies” rather than quote an unconfirmed number. Compare current decimal prices in NZD across our partner books before staking — odds shift through the day.
For the wider tournament picture behind these calls, see the value bets hub and the latest results recap.
- Portugal (1.18) and England (1.20) are heavy favourites; the value lies in supplementary markets, not the short match lines.
- Panama v Croatia is my best bet — Croatia at 1.55 with elimination on the line for both sides.
- Colombia (1.51) should beat DR Congo, but the price is fair rather than generous.
- All four matches fall in NZ morning-to-early-afternoon hours on 24 June NZST.
Predictions are analysis, not certainties. Odds are media-reported decimals as of 23 June 2026. Bet responsibly — see Responsible Gambling.
