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The round of 16 begins on 4 July and runs to 7 July, two matches a day. Six of the eight ties are already locked; the last two clear once today’s three round-of-32 fixtures finish. The bracket has handed us one genuine blockbuster — Spain v Portugal, the all-Iberian tie — a heavy France favourite playing under an extreme-heat warning, and a near coin-flip between the co-hosts USA and Belgium. Below is every confirmed tie with its decimal odds and New Zealand kick-off time.
The Confirmed Last-16 Ties
Six of the eight pairings are set. Odds are 1X2 decimals; "1" is the first-named team to win in 90 minutes.
| Tie | Date | 1 | X | 2 | NZ kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada v Morocco | 4 Jul | 5.20 | 3.60 | 1.83 | Sun 5 Jul, 5:00 AM NZST |
| Paraguay v France | 4 Jul | 18.50 | 7.50 | 1.22 | Sun 5 Jul, 9:00 AM NZST |
| Brazil v Norway | 5 Jul | 1.95 | 3.90 | 4.20 | Mon 6 Jul, 8:00 AM NZST |
| Mexico v England | 5 Jul | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.47 | Mon 6 Jul, 12:00 PM NZST |
| Spain v Portugal | 6 Jul | 1.95 | 3.70 | 4.20 | Tue 7 Jul, 7:00 AM NZST |
| USA v Belgium | 6 Jul | 2.72 | 3.50 | 2.77 | Tue 7 Jul, 12:00 PM NZST |
1X2 decimal odds (aggregated), as of 3 July 2026; NZ times converted from US Eastern (NZST +16h). The two remaining ties are M95 (Australia/Egypt winner v Argentina/Cape Verde winner) and M96 (Switzerland v Colombia/Ghana winner), both set after today’s matches.
The Two Still to Be Decided
Today’s round-of-32 results fill the final bracket slots:
| Tie | Date | Line-up | NZ kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| M95 | 7 Jul | Australia/Egypt winner v Argentina/Cape Verde winner | Wed 8 Jul, 4:00 AM NZST |
| M96 | 7 Jul | Switzerland v Colombia/Ghana winner | Wed 8 Jul, 8:00 AM NZST |
Switzerland are already confirmed in M96 after their 2-0 win over Algeria; their opponent is decided tonight.
The Tie to Watch: Spain v Portugal
The draw could hardly have produced a bigger last-16 tie. Spain arrive unbeaten and yet to concede a goal all tournament, and are priced at 1.95 to win the 90 minutes; Portugal — 4.20 — come in on the back of a 2-1 win over Croatia in which Cristiano Ronaldo became the oldest scorer in World Cup knockout history. It is a true heavyweight collision that the outright market rates as a meeting of a 7.00 shot (Spain) and a 13.50 shot (Portugal). We break it down in full in the Spain v Portugal prediction.
France, Heat and a Record in Sight
France are the round’s shortest favourite at 1.22 to beat Paraguay — but the story is the conditions. Their tie in Philadelphia falls under an official National Weather Service Extreme Heat Warning, with temperatures around 101°F (38°C) squarely over kick-off; it is the highest player-welfare risk on the slate. There is history on the line too: Kylian Mbappé sits on 18 career World Cup goals, one behind Lionel Messi’s all-time record of 19, and is level with Messi on six this tournament in the Golden Boot race.
| Contender | This tournament | Career WC goals |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 6 | 18 |
| Lionel Messi | 6 | 19 (all-time record) |
| Harry Kane | 5 | 13 (passed Pelé) |
| Erling Haaland | 5 | — |
Golden Boot leaderboard as of 3 July 2026. Mbappé leads the award on the assists tiebreaker.
The Rest of the Draw
Brazil (1.95) meet a Norway side carrying Erling Haaland, who reached the last 16 by beating Ivory Coast. Mexico v England is a pick-’em on the line (3.25 / 3.25 / 2.47) with a twist: the tie is at the Estadio Azteca, roughly 7,000 feet up. England manager Thomas Tuchel was blunt about it: "My understanding is we cannot adapt to the altitude." Canada v Morocco pits the co-hosts, 5.20 outsiders, against a Morocco side they have never beaten (0 wins in 4), while USA v Belgium is the tightest tie on the board — 2.72 the hosts, 2.77 Belgium.
For the wider market and tournament map, see the World Cup 2026 winner odds context, the predictions hub and the knockout-stage predictions.
- The round of 16 runs 4–7 July, two ties a day; six of eight pairings are confirmed, with M95 and M96 set after today’s matches.
- Spain v Portugal (6 July) is the marquee tie — Spain 1.95 and yet to concede, Portugal 4.20 after Ronaldo’s record night.
- France (1.22 v Paraguay) are the shortest favourite but play under a Philadelphia Extreme Heat Warning (~101°F).
- Mbappé (18) is one career World Cup goal from Messi’s all-time record of 19, and level with him on six this tournament.
- USA v Belgium (2.72 / 2.77) is the closest tie; Mexico v England is a pick-’em complicated by Azteca altitude.
Odds shown are aggregated decimals as of 3 July 2026 and are for analysis only. Betting carries risk — stake only what you can afford to lose. For New Zealand support, see Responsible Gambling.
