Semi-Final Preview: Top Four Set, France Clear Favourite at 2.40
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The semi-finals are set — and for the first time since FIFA rankings began in 1992, the world’s four top-ranked sides have all reached the same World Cup last four. France, Spain, England and Argentina, the four pre-tournament favourites and the four past champions still standing, are now one win from the final at MetLife Stadium on Sunday 19 Jul (Monday 20 Jul, 7am NZT).
Mbappé vs Spain, take two — the 2025 Nations League semi-final in Stuttgart ended 5-4 to Spain. They meet again at AT&T Stadium on Wednesday at 7am NZT. (Photo: Getty Images, used under editorial licence)
Key Numbers
| Metric | Value | Source / As of |
|---|---|---|
| Outright favourite | France 2.37–2.50 | FanDuel (FOX) / DraftKings (SI), 13–14 Jul 2026 ET |
| Number two on board | England 4.10–4.40 (FanDuel) / Spain 4.20–4.33 (DraftKings) | books disagree, 13–14 Jul ET |
| Longest of the four | Argentina 4.60–5.50 | DraftKings / FOX / Oddspedia, 13–14 Jul ET |
| SF1 line, France v Spain | France 2.35 / Draw 3.10 / Spain 3.10 | FanDuel via CBS, 13 Jul 19:49 ET |
| SF2 line, England v Argentina | England 2.55–2.65 / Draw 2.90–3.00 / Argentina 3.00–3.05 | DK / FanDuel via SI, 12 Jul ET |
| SF1 kickoff (NZT) | Wednesday 15 Jul, 7:00am NZT | NZ Herald; 1News |
| SF2 kickoff (NZT) | Thursday 16 Jul, 7:00am NZT | NZ Herald; 1News |
| Venue SF1 | AT&T Stadium, Arlington/Dallas TX (retractable roof) | FOX; CBS |
| Venue SF2 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA (retractable roof) | FOX; Yahoo |
The Bracket, In One Table
| SF | Match | Date (ET) | Date (NZT) | Venue | 1X2 (1 / X / 2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF1 | France v Spain | Tue 14 Jul, 15:00 | Wed 15 Jul, 07:00 | AT&T Stadium, Arlington/Dallas | 2.35 / 3.10 / 3.10 |
| SF2 | England v Argentina | Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 | Thu 16 Jul, 07:00 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta | 2.55–2.65 / 2.90–3.00 / 3.00–3.05 |
Winners meet in the Final at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ, on Sun 19 Jul, 15:00 ET (Mon 20 Jul, 07:00 NZT). Losers play the third-place play-off at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, on Sat 18 Jul, 17:00 ET (Sun 19 Jul, 09:00 NZT).
Outright Odds — The Four Still Alive
Books disagree on the order behind France, but not on the favourite. France is the clear top across every bookmaker sampled (FanDuel, DraftKings, Oddspedia), with a flat price around 2.37–2.50 after the quarter-finals. Spain and England are co-favourites for second, and which of them a bookmaker ranks ahead is the only real disagreement on the board.
| Selection | Best odds (decimal) | Range across books | Source / As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.37 | 2.37–2.50 | FanDuel (FOX) / DraftKings (SI), 13–14 Jul 2026 ET |
| England | 4.10 | 4.10–4.40 | FanDuel (FOX) 4.10 / DK (SI) 4.40, 13–14 Jul ET |
| Spain | 4.20 | 4.20–4.33 | FanDuel (FOX) 4.20 / DK (SI) 4.33, 13–14 Jul ET |
| Argentina | 4.60 | 4.60–5.50 | DK (SI) 4.60 / FOX, Oddspedia ~5.30–5.50, 13–14 Jul ET |
The market is also tightening on the head. Spain and England have both shortened over the past 24 hours (Spain 4.30–5.10 → 4.20–4.33; England 4.10–5.90 → 4.10–4.40). Argentina drifted on FOX and Oddspedia but tightened on DraftKings (5.00–5.20 → 4.60–5.50).
Form and Key Stats
| Side | W–D–L | Goals | Standout player | Tournament note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 6–0–0 | 16 GF, 1–2 GA | Kylian Mbappé (8 G, 3 A) | Joint-best attack; Tchouaméni back in XI for SF1 |
| Spain | 5–1–0 | 9 GF, 1 GA | Lamine Yamal, Rodri | Longest team-record unbeaten run (36); 6 straight C-S ended vs Belgium |
| England | 5–1–0 | 12 GF | Bellingham & Kane (6 each) | Quansah suspended; Reece James a doubt |
| Argentina | W-W-W-W-W (last five) | 17 GF | Messi (8 G, 2 A) | Tournament top scorers; defending champions |
France’s goals-against figure is reported as 1 by The Ringer and 2 by Football365, hence the 1–2 range above. Spain’s 1 GA is the cleanest run of any side left; Argentina lead the tournament in goals scored (17). The two knock-out favourites by attack are France and Argentina; by defence, Spain — and SF1 is exactly that clash.
Storylines To Watch
- “A final before the final.” Spain’s coach Luis de la Fuente used the phrase; NZ Herald and Sportsnet framed SF1 the same way. France and Spain have only met once at a World Cup — 2006 R16, France 3-1 — but Spain have won the last two meetings of note, Euro 2024 (2-1, Munich) and 2025 Nations League (5-4, Stuttgart, Yamal brace).
- First-ever all-top-four semi-finals. Argentina, Spain, France and England went into the tournament as the top four in FIFA’s rankings. All four are past champions. (ESPN; Al Jazeera; FOX; 1News, 12–13 Jul.)
- Mbappé v Yamal — El Clásico subplot. Deschamps confirmed captain Mbappé “100 percent” fit and singled out Yamal as a difference-maker, framing a forward duel between Real Madrid and Barcelona. (Jamaica Observer; Squawka, 13 Jul.)
- Deschamps into the record books. By taking charge of SF1, Didier Deschamps manages his 26th World Cup match, surpassing West Germany’s Helmut Schön (25) for the all-time record. (Squawka; Telecom Asia, 13 Jul.)
- England v Argentina — first WC meeting since 2002. The Sapporo meeting (Beckham penalty) was their last; the rivalry runs through 1986 (“Hand of God”), 1998 (Beckham red, England out on pens) and 2002. England are seeking a first final since 1966; Argentina are bidding to become the third nation to retain a World Cup after Italy 1934–38 and Brazil 1958–62. (FOX; ESPN; Al Jazeera; 1News, 12–13 Jul.)
How To Watch From New Zealand
- SF1 France v Spain — Wednesday 15 Jul, 07:00 NZT, AT&T Stadium. Live on TVNZ+ with an Event Pass. (NZ Herald; 1News.)
- SF2 England v Argentina — Thursday 16 Jul, 07:00 NZT, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Live and free-to-air on TVNZ 1 and TVNZ+. (1News.)
- Final — Monday 20 Jul, 07:00 NZT, MetLife Stadium. Live and free-to-air on TVNZ 1. (1News.)
- Third-place play-off — Sunday 19 Jul, 09:00 NZT, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami. TVNZ+ Event Pass.
- The semi-finals kick off in NZ at 7am on Wednesday (France v Spain) and Thursday (England v Argentina).
- France are the only unanimous outright favourite (2.37–2.50); books split on second (FanDuel: England 4.10; DraftKings: Spain 4.20).
- SF1 is the tournament’s best attack (France, 16 GF) vs best defence (Spain, 1 GA / record 6 straight clean sheets before Belgium).
- TVNZ 1 carries SF2 and the final free-to-air; SF1 and the third-place play-off are on TVNZ+ Event Pass.
Where To Bet The Semi-Finals From NZ
Outright, 1X2 and player-prop markets on France v Spain and England v Argentina are live at the NZD bookmakers below — all accept New Zealand customers, all carry decimal odds on the WC-2026 outright and match lines, and all have updated prices inside the last 24 hours.
- Boomerang Bet — full outright board + match 1X2, NZD wallet, mobile-first.
- ZotaBet — alternative outright book on France/Spain/England/Argentina.
- BillyBets — match props and team specials on the SFs.
- BetiBet — alternative odds, NZD, fast withdrawal.
- LamaBet — outright + Golden Boot markets for the final four.
- RichRoyal — outright board on the WC-2026 plus daily specials.
- WinRolla — NZD lines on the SF matches.
- MrPacho — alt-book outright lines, NZD wallet.
Related Pages
- Outright odds board — full tournament winner market.
- Top Scorer odds — Mbappé vs Messi Golden Board board.
- Tournament predictions hub — broader SF/Final predictions.
- Knockout stage predictions — full KO hub.
- Value bets for the final four — daily updated value reads.
Sources: NZ Herald (14 Jul); 1News (13–14 Jul); FOX; CBS Sports; Sports Illustrated; FanDuel via FOX/CBS; DraftKings via SI; Oddspedia; Football365; The Ringer; ESPN; Al Jazeera; Yahoo; Squawka; Sports Mole. Odds and team news as of 14 Jul 2026 ET.
