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Three ties close the round of 32 on 3 July, and the prices split cleanly into one procession and two live contests. Argentina v Cape Verde is the shortest knockout favourite on the board; Australia v Egypt and Colombia v Ghana are where the value questions actually sit. Below is each fixture with its decimal 1X2 odds, the model read, and the New Zealand kick-off time — all three land on Saturday morning-to-afternoon NZST.
The Card at a Glance
| Match (3 Jul) | 1 | X | 2 | NZ kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia v Egypt | 3.70 | 2.90 | 2.50 | Sat 4 Jul, 6:00 AM NZST |
| Argentina v Cape Verde | 1.18 | 9.00 | 28.00 | Sat 4 Jul, 10:00 AM NZST |
| Colombia v Ghana | 1.47 | 4.60 | 9.20 | Sat 4 Jul, 1:30 PM NZST |
1X2 decimal odds (aggregated), as of 3 July 2026; NZ times converted from US Eastern (NZST +16h). "1" is the first-named team to win in 90 minutes; a high draw price reflects the chance a knockout tie goes to extra time.
Australia v Egypt — the Pick of the Day
The most interesting tie on the card. Egypt reached the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in their history and are the shorter side to win in 90 minutes at 2.50, yet the draw is priced at just 2.90 — the market is braced for a cagey game that could run to extra time. The model agrees it is close: one projection has Egypt at 38.6% to win the 90, Australia at 30.4%, and Egypt 54% to advance overall.
The team-news swing is Mohamed Salah: cleared to play after a hamstring problem but not committed to the starting XI by his coach. Australia, meanwhile, failed to score in their last two group games and are without Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano. The venue helps the football — AT&T Stadium has a retractable roof and air-conditioning, so the ~100°F outside heat index should be neutralised.
Cold read: Egypt are the rightful favourites to advance, but 2.50 in a game the model sees as a near coin-flip in normal time offers little margin; the 2.90 draw is the live angle, given both sides’ caution and Egypt’s selection doubt.
Argentina v Cape Verde — No Value, All History
At 1.18, Argentina are as short as knockout football gets, and the numbers justify it: the holders have won 10 in a row, have conceded just one goal at this tournament, and carry Lionel Messi on six goals — level at the top of the scoring chart. Cape Verde, the tournament’s smallest-nation story, arrive as debutants who reached the last 32 without winning a group game.
| Metric | Argentina | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|
| Win odds (90 min) | 1.18 | 28.00 |
| Goals conceded (tournament) | 1 | — |
| Key man | Messi (6 goals) | GK Vozinha |
Odds and tournament data as of 3 July 2026. Argentina’s Cristian Romero returns from a knock; Gonzalo Montiel is out.
Cold read: there is no value backing a 1.18 shot outright, and Cape Verde at 28.00 is a lottery ticket, not a bet. The genuine interest here is the occasion, covered in full in our dedicated Argentina v Cape Verde prediction.
Colombia v Ghana — Control Against Resistance
Colombia won Group K with just one goal conceded and posted 6.05 expected goals across the group; the model backs them heavily at 64.8% to win, against Ghana’s 13.8%. Ghana — through as one of the best third-placed sides on 2.86 xG — will look to Antoine Semenyo, expected to be fit after an ankle issue. The winner books a last-16 tie with Switzerland (M96).
Cold read: Colombia at 1.47 is the soundest single-team price on the card if you want a favourite, but the model’s 64.8% implies a fair price closer to 1.54 — thin value at best. Ghana’s resistance profile makes the draw (4.60) the more interesting longshot than a straight upset.
- Argentina (1.18) are the shortest knockout favourite on the board, but at that price there is no betting value — the story is Messi and the smallest-nation occasion.
- Australia v Egypt is the tightest tie: Egypt 2.50 to win in 90, but the 2.90 draw reflects a likely cagey game and Egypt’s Salah selection doubt.
- Colombia (1.47) are strong favourites and the model’s clearest call (64.8%), though the implied margin is slim.
- All three ties kick off Saturday NZ time, from 6:00 AM NZST (Australia v Egypt).
- The Colombia/Ghana winner meets Switzerland in the last 16 (M96).
Odds shown are aggregated decimals as of 3 July 2026 and are for analysis only. Betting carries risk — stake only what you can afford to lose. For New Zealand support, see Responsible Gambling.
