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The 48-team group stage is all but done, and the round of 32 — this World Cup’s expanded first knockout round — is filling in fast. Seven ties are already locked, with the rest set once Groups J, K and L finish tonight. Below is the confirmed bracket so far, each tie with its decimal odds and New Zealand kick-off time. The early read: the seeded favourites have mostly drawn navigable openers, but two ties — Netherlands v Morocco and Ivory Coast v Norway — are close enough to be genuine upset bait.
How the New Format Works
For the first time the World Cup has 48 teams in 12 groups. The top two from each group qualify automatically (24 sides), and the eight best third-placed teams complete the 32-team knockout field. That makes the round of 32 a brand-new stage in World Cup history — one extra knockout round before the familiar last 16. For the full tournament map, see our World Cup 2026 predictions hub and the knockout-stage predictions.
Confirmed Round-of-32 Ties
Seven ties are set. Odds are 1X2 decimals; "1" is the first-named team.
| Tie | Date | 1 | X | 2 | NZ kick-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa v Canada | 28 Jun | 5.73 | 3.67 | 1.77 | Mon 29 Jun, 7:00 AM NZST |
| Brazil v Japan | 29 Jun | 1.75 | 3.88 | 5.48 | Tue 30 Jun, 5:00 AM NZST |
| Germany v Paraguay | 29 Jun | 1.42 | 5.08 | 8.70 | Tue 30 Jun, 8:30 AM NZST |
| Netherlands v Morocco | 29 Jun | 2.25 | 3.41 | 3.79 | Tue 30 Jun, 1:00 PM NZST |
| Ivory Coast v Norway | 30 Jun | 4.00 | 3.78 | 2.05 | Wed 1 Jul, 5:00 AM NZST |
| France v Sweden | 30 Jun | 1.33 | 6.04 | 11.40 | Wed 1 Jul, 9:00 AM NZST |
| USA v Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1 Jul | 1.45 | 5.02 | 9.20 | Thu 2 Jul, 12:00 PM NZST |
1X2 decimal odds (OddsPortal aggregate), as of 27 June 2026; NZ times converted from US Eastern (NZST +16h). The remaining ties involving Group J, K and L teams confirm after tonight’s matchday 3.
The Tie to Watch: Netherlands v Morocco
This is the standout on paper. The Netherlands won Group F with seven points, but Morocco finished Group C unbeaten on seven points themselves, and the odds reflect a near coin-flip: 2.25 the Dutch, 3.79 Morocco, 3.41 the draw. The injury ledger matters here — the Netherlands are without Jurriën Timber (groin) and Xavi Simons (ACL), while Morocco carry Nayef Aguerd as a long-term doubt. Their two previous meetings since 1994 both saw Morocco score, and neither was goalless.
The Favourites’ Openers
The seeded sides have mostly avoided landmines, and the prices say so.
| Favourite | Tie | Win odds | Key absence(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | v Sweden | 1.33 | — (squad firm; Deschamps returning) |
| Germany | v Paraguay | 1.42 | — |
| USA | v Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1.45 | — (co-host momentum) |
| Brazil | v Japan | 1.75 | Militão & Rodrygo (out, season) |
Win odds decimal, as of 27 June 2026. Brazil are without two first-choice players through injury; Japan are missing Kaoru Mitoma (hamstring).
France at 1.33 are the shortest knockout favourite of the round — fitting for the tournament’s 4.50 outright leader. Brazil’s 1.75 is the most vulnerable-looking of the four: Éder Militão and Rodrygo are out for the rest of the tournament, and Japan finished Group F unbeaten. For the outright market context, see our World Cup 2026 winner odds and the evergreen betting guide.
My Bracket Read
The cold view: France (v Sweden) and Germany (v Paraguay) are the safest of the confirmed favourites; Brazil v Japan and Ivory Coast v Norway carry the most upset equity, with Norway at 2.05 to beat Ivory Coast a defensible underdog price given they finished second in France’s group. South Africa, missing two suspended players, are rightly outsiders against a Canada side that put six past Qatar. The bracket’s shape won’t be complete until the Group J/K/L runners and best-thirds slot in tonight.
- The round of 32 is the new first knockout round in the 48-team format: top two per group plus the eight best third-placed teams.
- Seven ties are confirmed; the rest lock after Groups J, K and L finish on 27 June.
- For NZ, the knockouts open Monday 29 June at 7:00 AM NZST (South Africa v Canada) and run in morning-to-afternoon windows.
- France (1.33 v Sweden) is the shortest favourite; Netherlands v Morocco (2.25) is the tightest confirmed tie.
- Brazil (1.75 v Japan) look the most vulnerable seed, missing Militão and Rodrygo.
Odds shown are aggregated decimals as of 27 June 2026 and are for analysis only. Betting carries risk — stake only what you can afford to lose. For New Zealand support, see Responsible Gambling.
