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The group stage ends here. Six matches on 27 June settle Groups J, K and L, lock the last best-third places, and complete the round-of-32 bracket. Below is the full slate with decimal odds and — because every game falls in a friendly Sunday-morning-to-afternoon window for New Zealand — the kick-off times in NZST. My picks lead with the data: Opta’s model and the qualification maths both point the same way in most of these, and I flag the one genuine coin-flip worth a closer look.
The Full Slate: Odds & NZ Kick-Off Times
All six matches in one ledger. Odds are 1X2 decimals; "1" is the first-named team, "2" the second.
| Match (Group) | 1 | X | 2 | NZ time (Sun 28 Jun) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama v England (L) | 18.50 | 9.10 | 1.20 | 9:00 AM NZST |
| Croatia v Ghana (L) | 2.00 | 3.27 | 5.26 | 9:00 AM NZST |
| Colombia v Portugal (K) | 3.60 | 3.96 | 2.15 | 11:30 AM NZST |
| DR Congo v Uzbekistan (K) | 1.70 | 4.30 | 5.95 | 11:30 AM NZST |
| Algeria v Austria (J) | 4.28 | 2.35 | 3.07 | 2:00 PM NZST |
| Jordan v Argentina (J) | 22.00 | 9.95 | 1.18 | 2:00 PM NZST |
1X2 decimal odds (OddsPortal aggregate), as of 27 June 2026. NZ times converted from US Eastern (NZST is 16 hours ahead). Confirm prices with your book before staking.
Group K: Colombia v Portugal Is the Pick of the Day
Both teams are already through, so this decides the group winner and the friendlier knockout seeding. Portugal are the side favoured at 2.15 despite Colombia sitting top — and the model agrees: Opta gives Portugal a 51.6% win chance against Colombia’s 23.9%, with the draw at 25.2%. Ronaldo’s side thrashed Uzbekistan 5–0; Colombia ground out a 1–0 win over DR Congo. The wrinkle is that a draw would hand Colombia top spot, which can dull a favourite’s urgency.
My read: Portugal have the sharper attacking data, but motivation is split and a draw suits Colombia — I make this the most live three-way market on the card. The dedicated breakdown, with form and key-man stats, is in our Colombia v Portugal prediction.
Group L: England Cruise, Croatia v Ghana Is Winner-Take-All
Panama v England is the lopsided line of the day at 1.20 — England top the group and Opta hands them a 78.5% win probability and an 84.1% chance of finishing first, even with Reece James out (hamstring). The genuine drama is alongside it: Croatia v Ghana is effectively knockout football. Ghana go through with a win or a draw; Croatia must win to advance and otherwise rely on a best-third place. At 2.00, Croatia are favoured, and Joško Gvardiol’s return steadies their defence.
| Group L pick | Selection | Odds | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panama v England | England | 1.20 | Model 78.5% win; short but solid |
| Croatia v Ghana | Croatia | 2.00 | Win-or-bust urgency; Gvardiol back |
Selections are analysis, not guarantees. Opta win probabilities via Opta Analyst, as of 27 June 2026.
Group J: Argentina Stroll, Austria Edge the Duel for Second
Argentina have already won Group J and are expected to rotate — Lionel Messi is set to start on the bench — yet they remain 1.18 to beat an eliminated Jordan. The value question sits in the other game: Algeria v Austria is a straight shoot-out for second, and Austria advance with a win or a draw on the better goal difference, which is why they shade it at 2.35 for the draw and 3.07 to win outright. Algeria (4.28) must win.
My Three Best-Value Angles
Across six matches, the data and the price line up best in three places.
| Pick | Match | Odds | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal to win | Colombia v Portugal | 2.15 | Best attacking data on the card at an even-money-plus price |
| Croatia to win | Croatia v Ghana | 2.00 | Win-or-bust side with a returning first-choice defender |
| Austria to advance | Algeria v Austria | — | A draw is enough — lower-risk than backing the win line |
All selections are authored analysis based on the official group tables and decimal odds as of 27 June 2026.
For deeper context, compare these against our World Cup 2026 odds and the day’s value bets page, and check the full bracket picture in our round of 32 preview.
- Six matches on 27 June close Groups J, K and L; for New Zealand they run Sunday 28 June, 9:00 AM–2:00 PM NZST.
- Colombia v Portugal (11:30 AM NZST) is the standout — Portugal favoured at 2.15, with Opta giving them 51.6%.
- England are 1.20 to beat Panama; Croatia v Ghana is winner-take-all, with Croatia favoured at 2.00.
- Argentina (1.18) are likely to rotate against an eliminated Jordan; Austria can reach second with a draw.
- Best-value angles: Portugal to win (2.15), Croatia to win (2.00), Austria to advance.
Odds shown are aggregated decimals as of 27 June 2026 and are for analysis only. Betting carries risk — stake only what you can afford to lose. For New Zealand support, see Responsible Gambling.
